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US Jobs Data on Watch
While the focus yesterday was on the ECB and price action in EUR and European assets, today the spotlight is firmly back on USD. The latest round of US labour market data is due today and following on from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, there is a great deal of focus on today’s numbers. The Fed was seen opening the door to a pause at this month’s meeting though noted that it will be data dependent going forward, focusing mainly on jobs and inflation. As such, today’s data has the potential to be highly market moving for USD and US stocks.
USD View
If labour market conditions are seen weakening, this should reinforce the view that the Fed is likely to hold rates unchanged next month, dragging USD lower while underpinning stocks. On the other hand, any surprise upside in the data might keep the door open for a further rate hike in June dependent on where inflation is seen. Looking at the forecasts for today, the market is calling for 181k on the headline NFP, down from 236k prior. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 3.66 from 3.5% prior while average hourly earnings are expected to remain unchanged at 0.3%.
Crypto Opportunities
If confirmed at these levels, the skew is likely to be towards a softer USD and higher prices for risk assets. However, with US banking fears back in focus, the upside for risk assets will likely be limited. With this in mind, the better trading opportunities are likely to be found elsewhere such as in crypto where a combination of issues with the banking sector and a weaker USD should lead to higher prices near-term.
Technical Views
ETH
Following the correction from highs above the 2025.5 level, ETH is holding around the mid-point of the bull channel off the 2022 lows. While above the 1695.5 level and within the channel ,the focus is on an eventual break higher and a push towards the 2422 level next. To the downside, a break of current support will see the channel lows as the next support area to watch ahead of deeper support down at the 1268 level.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.